Dragon's Den Investing
A real-money investing newsletter
Real money. Six stocks. Measured against the S&P 500.
In 2025 the portfolio returned +26.61% against the S&P 500's +16.39%. Every quarter is published — the winning ones and the losing ones — because the only score that matters is portfolio minus index.
The scorecard, wins and losses.
Ahead in 2025, behind so far in 2026. Both are published here — a track record that hides its down quarters isn't a track record. Q3 to date updates live during market hours.
vs S&P 500 +16.39%
vs S&P 500 −5.1%
vs S&P 500 +14.9%
vs S&P 500 +9%
Live estimate during market hours (Mon–Fri 6:30 AM–1:00 PM MST) · · estimated portfolio value —
Four pillars, one portfolio.
Technology, geopolitics, and stock picking — acted on with real dollars, not just opinions.
Concentrated conviction
About six stocks. "Safe" compounders paired with volatile high-upside names — and the first-to-sell candidates named up front, not after the fact.
Distribution & data win
In AI, moated distribution beats foundation models. The real progress shows up in biotech and in platforms that already reach billions.
Geopolitics first
Five years living in China taught that tariffs, trade truces, and supply chains move sectors before earnings do. Macro is a lens, not a prediction.
Radical transparency
Quarterly performance with dollar tables and cost bases. Predictions graded A–F. Mistakes published — including the ones that still hurt.
Six positions. Nothing hidden.
End-of-2025 weights and cost bases, published with every thesis and what would change it.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Cost basis | 2025 return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| META | Meta Platforms | 42.42% | $93.67 | +12.74% |
| HALO | Halozyme Therapeutics | 19.46% | $53.26 | +40.77% |
| NET | Cloudflare | 11.77% | $40.08 | +83.09% |
| NTRA | Natera | 10.94% | $147.35 | +44.72% |
| U | Unity Software | 7.39% | $28.18 | +96.57% |
| CELH | Celsius Holdings | 4.34% | $46.07 | +68% |
Weights and cost bases as of December 31, 2025. Dollar position sizes are shared with paid subscribers only.
Latest essays.
Theses, macro, and performance narratives — free posts open to everyone, trade alerts reserved for paid subscribers.
Q2 Results & Thoughts on Recent Semi Boom
The Q2 rebound, and why the semiconductor boom still doesn't get a dollar from this portfolio.
Read on Substack →Q1 '26 Reflections and Performance
Down 13.3% in a quarter — "puts me in line with Cathie Wood… that hurts."
Read on Substack →On Sticking With Your Thesis
Judge the thesis, not the price — plus the Drunkenmiller entry-discipline framework.
Read on Substack →Thoughts on Software's Big Selloff
Software fell off a cliff on AI fears. Why META, NET, and Unity are held through the storm.
Read on Substack →