The scorecard.
A track record that hides its down quarters isn't a track record. Every quarter below is as published in the newsletter — including Q4 2025 and Q1 2026.
Growth of $100, through Q2 2026.
Hover any point for the values. The S&P 500 is drawn as straight segments between its verified points only — no quarterly index data is invented.
Every quarter, vs the index.
2025 beat the S&P 500 by about ten points. 2026 has gone the other way so far. A dash means the figure was never published — it is not filled in.
| Period | Portfolio | S&P 500 | Nasdaq | Portfolio − S&P |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | +2.09% | — | — | — |
| Q2 2025 | +17.14% | — | — | — |
| Q3 2025 | +10.19% | — | — | — |
| Q4 2025 | −3.92% | — | — | — |
| Full year 2025 | +26.61% | +16.39% | — | +10.22 pp |
| Q1 2026 | −13.3% | −5.1% | −8.1% | −8.2 pp |
| Q2 2026 | +10.6% | +14.9% | — | −4.3 pp |
| 2026 year-to-date | −4.2% | +9% | — | −13.2 pp |
Figures as published in the quarterly updates. "pp" = percentage points of difference vs the S&P 500.
Portfolio minus index. That's the score.
Absolute returns flatter the manager; only the difference from the index measures the decisions. As put in the Q3 2025 update:
This is why every update leads with the delta, not the dollar figure. Beating the market by ten points in 2025 counts. Trailing it by thirteen points so far in 2026 counts too — and gets published the same way.
Graded predictions, A through F.
Each year the calls get scored honestly. 2025's report card:
C+
2 A's (quantum-vs-Bitcoin thesis; AI agents underwhelming while coding tools matter), 2 B's (sticky inflation; biotech), 2 C's (Mag 7; Altman/Gemini), 2 D's (energy; M&A), 1 F (semiconductors — "I've gotten semis wrong for 2 years now").
D+
2 A's (Europe as the economic sick man; Chinese stocks strong, SMIC +145%), 1 B (Panama Canal), 1 C (Middle East), 3 D's (China tariffs; Canada; Mexico), 2 F's (Greenland bluster; Ukraine). "Overall barely a passing grade."